According to the most recent available information and data, the Virginia housing market is currently in an evolving phase marked by challenges and opportunities. Let’s look at the current state of the market to get a complete knowledge of the current trends.
Virginia Housing Market Trends
Is it a buyer’s or Seller’s Market?
In November of 2023, information released provided by the Virginia REALTORS(r) suggests a more nuanced picture of the Virginia home market. With 6,948 sales of homes in November, there was a 9.5 percent decrease over November 2022. This suggests that the market is slowing. But, this is the lowest year-over-year decline in the statewide sales rate for nearly two years. The decrease in sales is less dramatic, suggesting the possibility that certain markets in Virginia could be on the verge of an end, which would mean more opportunities for sellers and buyers.
Are home prices dropping?
Despite the overall slowdown, the Virginia housing market’s median sale price showed resilience. The median sale price was $385,000, a significant increase of over $20,000 compared to the previous year, a 5.5 percent gain. This increase suggests that contrary to the general market trends, home prices aren’t falling uniformly; however, certain areas could continue to see the rise.
Could This Housing Market Crash?
Although the data suggests an increase in sales, The most minor decrease in year-over-year sales over the past two years could indicate a gradual easing rather than a possible plunge. The steadying in inventory could be encouraging, specifically with a slight rise in new listings. But, constant surveillance of market conditions is essential to arrive at more precise conclusions.
Is this the best time to buy a house?
The best time to purchase a home depends on several variables. Virginia REALTORS(r) 2024 president Tom Campbell remains cautiously optimistic. Despite the limited market, Campbell says there is a chance for improvements in the next year. A decrease in mortgage rates and the possibility of further declines could entice homeowners who are hesitant to join the market. Potential buyers must be on the lookout for the developments and evaluate their situation before making an investment.
Virginia Housing Market Forecast 2023-2024
In the year ahead, 2024 and beyond, the Virginia real estate market appears to embark on an exciting and challenging journey. In the meantime, the Virginia REALTORS(r) organization has published the 2024 Economic & Housing Market Forecast, shedding light on what to expect in the upcoming year.
Principal Projections
Home Sales
Following a drastic drop in 2023’s sales, the forecast predicts sales will increase in 2024. The forecast predicts an 11.4 percent increase in home sales compared to the previous year. This is a good indicator for the market, suggesting that the effect on mortgage interest rates could stabilize, leading to increased sales. But it’s essential to keep in mind that although this improvement is a step up from 2023, it’s still less than the performance of the market over the last decade.
Home Prices
The median cost of homes in Virginia is predicted to experience an average rise of 1.2 percent in 2024 compared to 2023. Although home prices could remain increasing in various regions throughout the state, the forecast suggests the growth rate will slow down over the next year. This means that the rapid pace of price growth seen in recent times could slow down, thereby providing buyers some relief.
New Housing Permits
The need for more housing is a significant issue, particularly for newly built homes. The forecast for 2024 predicts the possibility of a 7.1 percent increase in the number of housing starts for new homes in Virginia by 2024. This rise in permits for housing is a crucial step towards solving the problem of inadequate housing inventory, which has slowed the market’s growth. This suggests a positive trend towards offering more choices to potential buyers.
Mortgage Rates
For 2023, the mortgage market reached an all-time high of 20 years, adding to the housing market’s difficulties. The forecast for 2024 suggests that 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates will likely remain volatile. However, they are likely to slowly decrease. At the end of the calendar year, this forecast predicts the possibility of a decrease to 6.15 percent. The change in the mortgage rate could provide some relief to buyers and encourage more activity in the market.
Although it was confirmed that the Virginia housing market will face significant challenges through 2023, the forecast for 2024 provides a glimpse of optimism. With an anticipated rise in sales of homes a s, a slight increase in the cost of homes a r, an increase in new permits for housing, and the possibility of a decrease in mortgage rates, The market is set for a period of change and adjustment.
However, the issues of the low inventory of homes and affordability restrictions are likely to continue. Sellers and buyers will have to continue to navigate an increasingly competitive market. The Virginia housing market through 2024 will be changing, so staying up-to-date about the forecasts is essential for anyone looking to be part of this changing market.
Zillow’s Forecasts for the Virginia Housing Market
It is clear that the Virginia property market, predicted by Zillow’s data, paints an image of a vibrant and competitive market. With rising home prices, rapid turnover, and the addition of many new homes, it is clear that the marketplace is active.
The Average House Value
According to Zillow, the median home value in Virginia is $372,801, a remarkable 4.9 percent growth over the last year. According to the most recent available information, this suggests a positive trend in the housing market as home values are rising.
Days to be Pending:
Properties in Virginia are moving fast and have an average of fourteen days from listing to waiting. This rapid turnover demonstrates the current market demand and the high-stakes nature of the state’s housing market.
Inventory Metrics:
- For Sale Inventory (November 30th, 2023): 18,073
- Latest Listings (November 30th, 2023): 7,243
- Median List Price (November 30th, 2023): $382,846
Statistics on Sales and Pricing:
- Median Ratio of Sale to List (October 31st, 2023): 1.000
- Median Sale Price (October 31st, 2023): $354,000
- Percentage of Sales Exceeding the List Price (October 31st, 2023): 43.7 percent
- Percentage of Sales Below the List Price (October 31st, 2023): 32.9 Percentage
Areas to be Anticipated for Home Price Decline in Virginia in 2024:
Although the overall Virginia housing market shows resilient and positive trends, it’s essential to consider specific areas in which home prices are predicted to decrease in the next year based on the information provided. These forecasts are based on regional analysis and particular factors that influence real estate development in 2024.
Washington, DC Washington, DC, an essential metropolitan statistical area (MSA) located in Virginia, Washington, DC, is predicted to see decreases in home prices. The data suggest a decline of 0.5 percent at the end of February 2024 and an even more significant reduction of -2.6 percent in November 2024. These numbers indicate potential issues or changes in the real estate market in the area and highlight the importance of careful consideration for both sellers and buyers in this area.
Charlottesville, VA: Another significant area with potential home price changes can be found in Charlottesville, VA. While there is a modest rise of 0.1 percent at the end of December 2023, the figures show a drop of -0.3 percent in February 2024 and a more considerable -1.3 percent reduction by November 2024. This suggests that potential homebuyers or sellers looking to sell their homes in Charlottesville must be aware of changes in market conditions and modify their strategies accordingly.
Big Stone Gap, VA in this MSA the slight rise of 0.1 percent is anticipated until the closing of the year 2023. In November 2024 and February 2024, prices for homes are likely to drop by 0.1 percent as well as -1.2 percent and -1.2%, respectively. This suggests a possible price adjustment or market correction unique to this area, requiring a more nuanced strategy for the people involved in actual home transactions.
Virginia Beach, VA: Virginia Beach, another significant MSA within the state, is also listed on the list of places where home prices could fall. The research suggests a -0.2 percent reduction in February 2024 and a dramatic drop of -1.1 percent in November 2024. Sellers and buyers looking to sell their homes in Virginia Beach should closely monitor these trends to make educated decisions in a marketplace likely to undergo changes over the coming year.
Harrisonburg, VA: The Harrisonburg MSA is anticipated to see a drop in the value of homes. Forecasts suggest a -0.6 percent decrease at the end of February 2024, and an even more substantial drop of -1.1 percent by the end of November 2024. This indicates a possible difficult market in Harrisonburg and underscores the importance of taking care when making real property transactions in the area.
Blacksburg, VA: Like other regions, Blacksburg sees a projected lower home value predicted to be a -0.4 percent decline by February 2024 and an additional -0.8 percent decrease by November 2024. Buyers and sellers of Blacksburg must be aware of these forecasts and adapt their strategies according to the changing market conditions within this particular MSA.
Winchester, VA: In Winchester, the research suggests that there will be a -0.2 percent decrease in February 2024 and a -0.6 percent decline by the end of November 2024. While the expected changes are not as significant as in other areas, it highlights the importance of stakeholders in Winchester being aware of and adapting to changing market trends.
Staunton, VA: Staunton has a more stable forecast with only a slight increase of 0% in February 2024 and a -0.6 percent decline in November 2024. Although Staunton’s market conditions seem arrestable, transactions should be alert to any shifts within the local landscape.
Richmond, VA: Richmond, a central metropolitan region located in Virginia, is predicted to experience an -0.2 percent decrease by the end of February 2024 and the same amount of a -0.4 percent decline by the end of November 2024. The numbers suggest a moderate change in the prices of homes, and the people who reside in Richmond must navigate the changes using a nuanced strategy for actual home transactions.